Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 73% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 57% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Match O/U 21.5 | 48% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 1 Winner | 27% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul Set 2 Winner | 24% |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul | 18% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: national bank open: valentin royer vs tommy paul stands at 73% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Valentin Royer and Tommy Paul in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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