Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 21.5 | 59% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 58% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 2 Winner | 48% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide | 47% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set 1 Winner | 47% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Match O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 35% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 28% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 59% probability to توقع: us open, qualification atp: joel schwaerzler vs gustavo heide. This market refers to the tennis match between Joel Schwaerzler and Gustavo Heide in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Trade توقع: US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler v… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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