Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 68% |
| Player A | 50% |
| Player B | 50% |
| Player C | 50% |
| Player D | 50% |
| Player E | 50% |
| Player F | 50% |
| Player G | 50% |
| Player H | 50% |
| Player I | 50% |
| Player J | 50% |
| Player K | 50% |
| Player L | 50% |
| Player M | 50% |
| Player N | 50% |
| Player O | 50% |
| Player P | 50% |
| Player Q | 50% |
| Player R | 50% |
| Player S | 50% |
| Player T | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Harry Kane | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal | 14% |
| Rodri | 2% |
| Lionel Messi | 2% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1% |
| William Saliba | 1% |
| Dayot Upamecano | 1% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0% |
| Fabian Ruiz | 0% |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0% |
| Erling Haaland | 0% |
| Jude Bellingham | 0% |
| Michael Olise | 0% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0% |
| Declan Rice | 0% |
| Vitinha | 0% |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0% |
| Luis Diaz | 0% |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0% |
| Marc Cucurella | 0% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 0% |
| Sadio Mané | 0% |
| Marquinhos | 0% |
| Nuno Mendes | 0% |
| João Neves | 0% |
| Willian Pacho | 0% |
| Julián Quiñones | 0% |
| Ferran Torres | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 68% chance of توقع: ballon d'or 2026: 2nd place. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 2nd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in Londo…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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Trade توقع: Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place on احتمالات كأس العالم
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