Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Game Spread +/-5.5 | 61% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Match O/U 36.5 | 43% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 2 Winner | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 3 Winner | 28% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set 1 Winner | 26% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien | 14% |
| US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 6% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 61% probability to توقع: us open atp: gael monfils vs learner tien. This market refers to the tennis match between Gael Monfils and Learner Tien in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gael Monfils' i…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open ATP: Gael Monfils vs Learner Tien. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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