Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
88% | 12% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
88% | 12% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor | 88% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 2 Winner | 78% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 1 Winner | 75% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 73% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 3 Winner | 71% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Match O/U 36.5 | 51% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Game Spread +/-5.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 48% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Match O/U 38.5 | 47% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Match O/U 40.5 | 41% |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 19% |
Market context
Market consensus: 88% chance of توقع: us open atp: ben shelton vs tallon griekspoor. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Tallon Griekspoor in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for August 30, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Tallon Griekspoor. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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