Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg (-1.5) | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 99% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 | 40% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score | 6% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden (-1.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| SG Dynamo Dresden 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
1. FC Nürnberg host Dynamo Dresden in the 2. Bundesliga at the Max-Morlock-Stadion, with the game set for 11:30 UTC and the market already pricing the “more markets” outcome at certainty. The most recent comparable meeting at this venue finished 0-2 to Dresden in April 2026, but Nürnberg had actually won three of the previous five head-to-heads and six of the last 11 overall, so the rivalry has not been one-way.[3][15][9]
That makes the current 100% YES read more like a reflection of match-day dependency than a simple form call: these clubs have enough history, volatility and recent scoring patterns to generate ancillary markets around cards, corners, and goals if the line-ups are competitive. Nürnberg’s latest listed team news points to a largely available squad aside from Styopa Mkrtchyan, while Dresden were expected to be without Kenneth Schmidt, Lars Bünning, Lennart Grill and Tobias Raschl, which matters because absences at centre-back and in goalkeeping cover can change the shape of prop markets quickly.[6]
The key trader watchpoints are the published line-ups, any late fitness holds, and whether Dresden’s unavailable players are replaced by less experienced options, because that alters both game state and market depth before kick-off. Pre-match reporting also flagged a sizeable travelling Dresden support and a Nürnberg side beginning the season at home, two factors that can feed early momentum and increase the chance of live-market activity if the opening minutes resemble the fast-start pattern seen in the April fixture.[6][7]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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