Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -17.5 | 95% |
| Spread -24.5 | 92% |
| Spread -20.5 | 91% |
| O/U 40.5 | 89% |
| Spread -21.5 | 87% |
| 1H Spread -23.5 | 87% |
| Spread -27.5 | 82% |
| O/U 43.5 | 80% |
| O/U 46.5 | 72% |
| O/U 52.5 | 72% |
| Spread: USC (-38.5) | 61% |
| O/U 58.5 | 61% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 58% |
| Spread -34.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 55% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 55% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| O/U 64.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| Spread -39.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| O/U 66.5 | 50% |
| O/U 68.5 | 50% |
| O/U 72.5 | 50% |
| O/U 74.5 | 50% |
| O/U 78.5 | 50% |
| O/U 80.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -25.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| USC O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| USC 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| USC O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| USC 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| O/U 70.5 | 49% |
| O/U 76.5 | 49% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 62.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 41% |
| O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| O/U 60.5 | 31% |
| San Jose State vs. USC | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
توقع: San Jose State vs. USC — current market-implied probability: 95%. In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for August 29 at 3:00PM ET: If San Jose State wins, the market will resolve to "San Jose State". If USC wins, the market will resolve to "USC". If the …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $131K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: San Jose State vs. USC. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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