Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Draw | 100% |
| Henan FC | 0% |
| Dalian Yingbo FC | 0% |
Market context
Henan FC host Dalian Yingbo FC in the Chinese Super League, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of the listed YES outcome. The recent frame is mixed but informative: Dalian won the league meeting 2-1 in April 2026, while Henan beat Dalian 4-0 at home in August 2025, so the head-to-head has already produced both a narrow away win and a one-sided home response[13][15][6]. More broadly, recent H2H data shows Dalian with three wins in the last five meetings and Henan with one, while the same sample points to relatively modest scoring overall despite Henan’s more open recent games[1][3].
The main trading catalysts are squad news and late team-sheet changes, because both clubs have been active in quick turnaround fixtures. Henan played Shandong on 26 July and Dalian were away to Zhejiang the same day, so fatigue, rotation and any knock-on suspensions from those matches matter for line-up strength[6][18]. The strongest near-term signal is the official predicted line-ups and confirmed team news window on matchday, since only those announcements will clarify whether either side is resting key attackers or protecting defenders after the 21 July cup meeting that finished level before Dalian edged it on penalties[2][5][18]. If a recent injury or suspension update emerges before kick-off, it is likely to move this market more than the historical record.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $197K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Henan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC on احتمالات كأس العالم
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