Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Qingdao Xihaian and Chongqing Tonglianglong are scheduled to meet in the Chinese Super League on 14 August 2026. The fixture kicks off at 08:00 ET, placing it in the early-morning window typical of CSL weekend scheduling. Both clubs will be mid-season at that point, with form and injury status likely to have shifted considerably from current standings.
The 0% implied probability suggests the market is either illiquid or awaiting substantive information before pricing additional outcomes. Historical precedent in CSL markets shows that fixtures between mid-table or lower-ranked sides often trade with wide bid-ask spreads until team news materialises within 48 hours of kick-off. Head-to-head records between these two sides carry limited predictive weight given the league's competitive volatility and frequent squad turnover; recent direct meetings are less informative than current-season form trajectories.
Traders should monitor official CSL announcements regarding squad availability, particularly suspensions from prior fixtures and injury updates released by either club in the week preceding the match. Qingdao's domestic performance in July and early August will signal whether they enter the fixture as favourites or underdogs. Chongqing's recent results, especially against comparable opposition, will establish baseline expectations. Weather conditions in Qingdao during mid-August—humidity and heat—occasionally influence match dynamics in ways reflected in late-market movement. Any managerial changes or tactical shifts announced before the settlement window closes will likely trigger repricing.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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