Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Shanghai Haigang FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Chongqing Tonglianglong’s home meeting with Shanghai Haigang lands in a spot where the market’s **0% YES** implies traders see no realistic path to a Chongqing-specific “more markets” outcome unless the underlying selection is something very narrow and unfavoured. The broad team context points the same way: Chongqing came into August on a weak run, with Sky Sports listing back-to-back league defeats, while Shanghai Port’s profile remains that of the stronger squad on paper despite a recent slip in form.[6][18] The only direct head-to-head available in the results leans towards variance rather than dominance, with Chongqing beating Shanghai Port 2-1 in April, but that result sits against a much larger sample in which Shanghai’s squad quality and defensive record have historically made them the more reliable side.[5][1]
For traders, the key catalysts are team news and whether Shanghai rotate after a demanding schedule, because any “more markets” resolution can turn on line-up strength more than scoreline alone. The match was scheduled for Chongqing Longxing Football Stadium, and the latest previews available close to kick-off do not flag major injury updates, which leaves late confirmation of starting elevens as the main dependency.[2][3] Chongqing’s recent league results show limited attacking output — including a 2-0 defeat at Shenzhen Xinpengcheng and a 1-0 loss at Wuhan Three Towns — so any market tied to goals, corners, or second-half scoring would be highly sensitive to whether Shanghai field first-choice creators or conserve legs for the wider league run-in.[6][18]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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