Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 100% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 1% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 0 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 0 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 1 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 2 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 1 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 2 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| 1. FC Cologne 3 - 3 Real Sociedad San Sebastian | 0% |
| Any Other Score | 0% |
Market context
Real Sociedad’s visit to Cologne is a classic friendly market where scoreline volatility matters more than outright strength. The recent form lines in the live match listings point to both sides being involved in open games: Köln have had a 2-2 draw with Hertha and a 5-1 defeat at Bayern among their latest summer fixtures, while Real Sociedad have mixed a 2-1 loss to Toulouse with wins over Aston Villa and Wolves earlier in the same run. That profile fits a market where the crowd’s 0% price on any single exact score leaves room for a fairly broad set of outcomes, especially if either coach uses the match to test combinations rather than settle on a rigid XI.[1][7][10]
The main catalyst is squad selection. Fox Sports’ pre-match player news says Takefusa Kubo is in Real Sociedad’s squad for the double header in Cologne, which is the kind of detail that can shift exact-score pricing if he starts rather than appears late from the bench.[7] For Köln, the key watchpoint is whether they keep the same loose, high-event pattern seen in recent friendlies; FootyStats’ sample for this fixture type shows Köln averaging 4.5 goals per match and Real Sociedad 3.1 in international club-friendlies data, with both teams scoring frequently.[5] There is also a historical frame: UEFA’s head-to-head record between the clubs is limited to two Europa League games in 1988/89, producing one draw and one Sociedad win, so there is little direct matchup evidence to anchor an exact score beyond general style and current squad usage.[13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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