Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Match Winner | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Vici Gaming and Yakult Brothers are meeting in a best-of-three playoff series in the Games of the Future, with the market effectively pricing a full match rather than a cancellation or walkover. The listed start time is 11:00 GMT, which aligns with the 7:00 AM ET schedule in the market description, so the main settlement risk is not timing drift but whether the series actually plays to completion.[6]
The head-to-head has been split in recent months, which helps explain why a 100% “YES” price looks more like a view on the match going ahead than on one side dominating. Vici beat Yakult Brothers 2-1 in the The International 2026 China Regional Qualifier, but Yakult Brothers won the earlier qualifier meeting 2-0, and they also took a 1-2 series in BLAST Slam VII China Closed Qualifier; across those results, neither side has established a clean edge.[8][11][14] Liquipedia’s recent match history also shows both teams playing a similar cadence of qualifier and playoff series through late January and June, with no sign of a dramatic long-run form gap that would normally force a one-sided market.[19]
For traders, the key catalysts are straightforward: official bracket confirmation, any last-minute roster swaps, and whether the series starts on time given the narrow settlement window. The current live listings already show the fixture as scheduled, which reduces uncertainty around whether the match is on the card, but not around completion risk if the event runs late or is interrupted.[2][6][15] In practical terms, the strongest drivers are still operational rather than performance-based: confirmed line-ups, no technical forfeits, and no schedule change pushing the series beyond the seven-day fallback rule in the contract.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) -… on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →