Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Crawley Town FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Crawley Town FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| York City FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| York City FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| York City FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| York City FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| York City FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| York City FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Crawley Town FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
York City face Crawley Town in the EFL Cup, with the market currently pricing the “more markets” line at an implied 0% yes. The historical framing is thin but useful: the sides have met only a handful of times in competitive football, with recent head-to-head records split by narrow margins and a run of low-to-moderate scoring results, including a 2-2 draw and a 1-0 Crawley win in their last league-era meetings.[3][7][13]
Form lines from late spring also point in opposite directions. Crawley ended their League Two campaign with a mixed spell that included draws against Salford, Accrington and Shrewsbury, while York came into the summer on a stronger run in the National League, finishing with wins over Yeovil, Tamworth, Altrincham, Boston United and Woking before a draw at Rochdale.[1] That contrast matters because cup ties between clubs from different divisions often hinge less on headline quality and more on whether the lower-tier side can carry summer continuity into a first competitive fixture.[1][14]
The main trader catalysts are team news and whether either manager rotates heavily for a first-round cup tie. The line can move sharply once starting XIs are confirmed, especially if York rest key attackers after a promotion push or Crawley field a more settled League Two core; the current live match listings indicate the fixture is active on major score and preview feeds, but no verified injury or suspension update is evident in the results provided.[2][8][12] If a late absence lands in either defence, the most sensitive “more markets” angles are usually card, corner and goal totals rather than the outright result.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: York City FC vs. Crawley Town FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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