Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Kashima Antlers O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kashima Antlers O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kashima Antlers O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kashima Antlers 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kashima Antlers 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kashima Antlers 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos (-1.5) | 0% |
| Kashima Antlers (-1.5) | 0% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5) | 0% |
| Kashima Antlers (-2.5) | 0% |
| Kashima Antlers 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Yokohama F·Marinos 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Yokohama F. Marinos host Kashima Antlers in a J1 League meeting that has often produced tight, high-leverage swings rather than a one-sided pattern. Across the recent head-to-head record, Kashima hold the edge overall, with FotMob showing 20 Kashima wins, 14 Marinos wins and five draws, while FootyStats lists 17 Kashima wins, 11 Marinos wins and four draws in the last 32 meetings.[2][4] The most recent comparable results also lean Kashima’s way: Kashima beat Marinos 2-1 on 6 December 2025, then won 1-0 in February 2026, while the sides drew 1-1 in May 2026.[1][7][8] That history matters because a 0% yes price on “more markets” implies the market is assuming no further linked outcomes will be added, yet this fixture has repeatedly been competitive enough to generate multiple late-market shifts when line-ups or match state changed.[1][2]
For traders, the main catalysts are team-news timing and any dependency on late squad updates before kick-off. There is no confirmed injury or suspension information in the supplied results, so the sharpest move would come from official pre-match line-ups, especially if either side rotates key attackers or defenders after a short turnaround.[1][3] Kashima’s recent form has been slightly more stable than Marinos’ in the samples available, with a stronger defensive run in the last five listed head-to-head comparables and several low-scoring outcomes for Kashima, which can affect derivative markets such as goals, cards and corners.[5][12][15] If either club confirms an unchanged XI or an unexpected absentee, that is the kind of update that typically re-prices ancillary markets before settlement.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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