Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pumas de la UNAM O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Columbus Crew 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Columbus Crew 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Columbus Crew O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Pumas de la UNAM O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Columbus Crew (-1.5) | 9% |
| O/U 3.5 | 4% |
| Pumas de la UNAM (-2.5) | 2% |
| Pumas de la UNAM O/U 2.5 | 2% |
| Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5) | 1% |
| Columbus Crew (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Columbus Crew 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Pumas de la UNAM 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Columbus Crew meet Pumas UNAM in the Leagues Cup on 11 August, and the live market has to weigh a short, sharp recent form split: Columbus beat Pachuca 2-1 and Atlas 3-1 before drawing 2-2 with Inter Miami, while Pumas arrive after a 2-0 loss to FC Cincinnati and a 3-0 defeat to Charlotte FC, with only a 5-1 win over Juárez in between.[4] The historical angle also leans towards Columbus. Head-to-head listings show Columbus have won both previous meetings with Pumas, while Pumas have lost both, although the sample is small and all of it is from this competition cycle’s comparable recent fixtures rather than a long-standing rivalry.[2]
A 9% crowd-implied chance for “More Markets” points to a narrow, event-specific angle rather than a broad Columbus edge, so traders should focus on late team news and whether either side rotates after a compact Leagues Cup schedule.[15] Columbus’ current match data show they are generating chances and controlling possession, and ESPN’s live feed listed B. Méndez and other starters in the team-stat context around the game, which matters because any change in their attacking structure would quickly alter derivative markets tied to goals, cards, or player-specific outcomes.[16][10] Pumas’ line-up risk is more obvious after back-to-back defeats, and their prior results suggest the price is likely to move on confirmation of whether the same defensive group starts again or whether the coach freshens the back line.[4][18]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Columbus Crew vs. Pumas de la UNAM - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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