Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Match Winner | 81% |
| Game 4 Winner | 57% |
| Game Handicap: CFO (-1.5) vs Ground Zero Gaming (+1.5) | 57% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 45% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 45% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 45% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 45% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 45% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 45% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 43% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: CFO (-2.5) vs Ground Zero Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
CTBC Flying Oyster and Ground Zero Gaming are due to meet in the LCP Group Stage, with the market currently pricing a **0%** chance of the listed outcome. Live and recent match pages show this is a **best-of-five** series and that the teams have already been involved in a tight contest today, with SofaScore listing the match at **1-1 after Game 3** and a start time of 09:00 UTC in the LCP Swiss/Group stage.[1]
The historical read is mixed rather than one-sided. Recent head-to-head records are split, with sources showing the teams have traded series wins this year: Ground Zero Gaming beat CTBC Flying Oyster **3-1** in February, while CTBC Flying Oyster took a later meeting **2-0** in May.[9][11] Standings from LCP Split 1 also had Ground Zero slightly ahead in the regular season, finishing **4-3** to CFO’s **3-4**, which supports the view that this matchup has been competitive rather than dominated by one side.[16] Form indicators are also uneven: one recent form page has CFO on **2 wins from 5** and Ground Zero on **1 win from 5**, while another tracker shows CFO’s recent run including a **3-0** loss to Team Secret Whales and Ground Zero coming off a stronger series against Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming.[4][8]
For traders, the key catalysts are confirmation of the live series state, map progression, and whether any roster or schedule change affects completion before the settlement deadline. Because the market resolves on the match winner only if the series finishes normally, a suspension, cancellation, or a delay of more than seven days can flip settlement to **50-50** under the market rules; the current live pages already matter more than pre-match previews.[1][6] Roster continuity also looks relevant: current listings on match trackers show established starters for both sides, with no injury or suspension news surfaced in the available sources.[8][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming … on احتمالات كأس العالم
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