Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) | 58% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Game 4 Winner | 43% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 43% |
| Match Winner | 22% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: GAM (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
The توقع: LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Group Stage prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the LoL Round 5 match between Deep Cross Gaming and GAM Esports in the LCP Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Deep Cross G…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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