Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 74% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 55% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 55% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 54% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 54% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 54% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 48% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 48% |
| Game 4 Winner | 42% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 41% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 40% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 38% |
| Game 1 Winner | 37% |
| Game 2 Winner | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 37% |
| Game 3 Winner | 36% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 32% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Match Winner | 27% |
| Game Handicap: NIP (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 74% chance of توقع: lol: edward gaming vs ninjas in pyjamas (bo5) - lpl knights rivals. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL match between EDward Gaming and Ninjas in Pyjamas in the LPL Knights Rivals, initially scheduled for August 28, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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