Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 82% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 70% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 59% |
| O/U 8.5 | 57% |
| NRFI | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 39% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 37% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 20% |
| Extra Innings | 9% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks met in Phoenix on 11 August, with the market’s 39% yes price implying a modest Rockies chance in a matchup that has generally tilted Arizona’s way this season. The clubs split two games in late May, but the Diamondbacks have already taken control of the 2026 head-to-head, winning six of the first seven meetings and outscoring Colorado comfortably across the series. Recent results also point towards Arizona’s edge: the Diamondbacks opened the current set with a 9-0 win on Monday, while Colorado arrived after a difficult run of results. [3][13][15]
The longer frame still matters because Colorado’s profile has been volatile all year. Earlier 2026 results included a 3-2 Rockies win in Phoenix and an 8-6 Arizona win in Denver, so these games have not been one-way traffic, but the broader head-to-head record strongly favours Arizona over the past several seasons. Colorado has also been hampered by a long injury list, including Ezequiel Tovar, Kris Bryant and Kyle Freeland, while Arizona has had its own pitching absences, including Corbin Burnes, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez. [4][14][16]
For traders, the main catalysts are late line-up confirmation and pitching availability, because both teams have been operating with patched-up rosters. Arizona’s recent scoring surge, driven by Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, has been a meaningful form signal, while Colorado’s line-up has been more dependent on patchwork production after multiple injured-list hits. Any late scratch to a starter or unexpected bullpen reshuffle would matter more than usual in a series where recent scorelines have swung from a Rockies upset to a Diamondbacks blow-out. [6][13][16]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $180K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →