Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 84% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 69% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 61% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 60% |
| O/U 8.5 | 55% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| O/U 9.5 | 40% |
| Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 37% |
| O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| NRFI | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 18% |
Market context
The Colorado Rockies travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks on 12 August in a National League West matchup with significant playoff implications for both clubs. At 37% implied probability for a Rockies victory, the market reflects Arizona's recent dominance in the division and stronger overall record. The Diamondbacks have maintained a winning record through the season whilst Colorado has struggled with consistency, particularly in road performances. Coors Field's altitude advantage is negated here, placing the Rockies in a neutral or slightly disadvantageous environment where their offensive profile becomes less predictable.
Historically, the Diamondbacks have won the season series against Colorado in recent years, though individual games remain competitive. The 37% probability for a Rockies win aligns with their general underdog status in divisional play, though not extreme enough to suggest Arizona is prohibitive. Head-to-head records in late August often reflect mid-season form rather than predictive power, as roster adjustments and fatigue patterns shift considerably.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through to game time, particularly any late injuries to Colorado's starting rotation or Arizona's key position players. Recent transactions, bullpen availability following back-to-back games, and weather conditions at Chase Field (heat affecting ball carry) merit attention. Arizona's pitching matchup advantage or disadvantage relative to Colorado's lineup will be clarified once starting pitchers are confirmed, typically 24 hours before first pitch. Any unexpected roster moves or suspension announcements could shift the probability materially from current levels.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $293K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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