Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| NRFI | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 87% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics | 76% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 61% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 60% |
| O/U 9.5 | 60% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| O/U 10.5 | 41% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 33% |
| O/U 11.5 | 32% |
| O/U 12.5 | 26% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 11% |
| Extra Innings | 11% |
| Spread -2.5 | 9% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers meeting the Athletics has been priced as a Tigers-leaning game, with recent pre-game markets putting Detroit in the mid-50s to mid-60s on implied win probability and several books showing a short Tigers moneyline favourite. That sits below the current crowd-implied 76% YES, so the market is already asking for a materially stronger Detroit edge than the pre-game numbers suggested on comparable July and early-August pricing. [1][4][5][7]
Recent head-to-head results point in the same direction for Detroit: the Tigers swept the first three games of this matchup earlier in July, winning 4-1, 6-1 and 6-2, while being favoured each time. That kind of short-term series form matters more than season-long records in a single-game market, but it also warns against over-reading one-sided results because baseball pricing can swing sharply on the confirmed starting pitchers and late line-up changes. [12][16]
For traders, the key catalysts are the announced starters, any rest day for core bats, and bullpen availability after the earlier games in the series. The official game time is 4:05pm ET on 2 August, and any postponement would keep the market open until completion, while a cancellation or tie would settle 50-50. In practice, the main line move will come if Detroit confirms a stronger starter or if Athletics line-up news weakens an already underdog profile; late scratches or an opener/bullpen game would matter more here than broad season averages. [1][12]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $609K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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