Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 71% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 61% |
| O/U 7.5 | 55% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 51% |
| NRFI | 49% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 48% |
| O/U 8.5 | 47% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| O/U 9.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 36% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers travel to Pittsburgh on 17 August for an evening fixture against the Pirates, with the crowd currently pricing the Tigers at 51 per cent to secure victory. Both clubs occupy the lower half of their respective divisions, though Detroit enters August with marginally better recent form. The Tigers' win-loss record through mid-August typically reflects inconsistent starting pitching paired with a middle-order that generates occasional offensive bursts; the Pirates, conversely, have struggled with run production and rely heavily on their bullpen to keep games competitive. Head-to-head records between these franchises show minimal historical advantage, with results over the past three seasons clustering around even splits, suggesting neither team possesses a structural edge in this matchup.
Traders should monitor lineup confirmations 24 hours before first pitch, particularly any late-notice absences among Detroit's regular outfielders or Pittsburgh's catching rotation. Injury reports from both clubs' medical staff often emerge mid-afternoon on game day; the Pirates' recent tendency to rest key position players during August fixtures could suppress their offensive ceiling. Starting pitcher assignments carry outsized weight here—Detroit's rotation depth remains shallow, whilst Pittsburgh's starter availability fluctuates with their bullpen workload from preceding games. Weather conditions at PNC Park on 17 August may favour either team depending on wind direction and temperature, as the venue's dimensions reward certain batted-ball profiles. Settlement occurs on 24 August, allowing seven days for any postponement or rescheduling should weather intervene.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $196K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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