Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 58% |
| NRFI | 49% |
| O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| O/U 8.5 | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 34% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 34% |
| O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| Spread -2.5 | 21% |
| Extra Innings | 8% |
Market context
Detroit and Seattle meet again after the Tigers’ **8-0** shutout on 4 August, a result that sits alongside their earlier split in June: Detroit won **5-4** after Seattle had taken the first two games of that set, including a **4-0** shutout.[1][2][10] That mixed head-to-head matters because the current crowd-implied **41% YES** for Detroit is not far from a live, coin-flip read after one lopsided Tigers win; Seattle’s season-long run prevention still looks stronger on paper, but Detroit has already shown it can match up with this pitching staff for short stretches.[1][7][15]
The line should be driven by who is available behind the plate and in the middle of the order, plus the starting pitchers confirmed on the day. Seattle’s recent coverage noted a reshuffled lineup after Brendan Donovan returned from the injured list and Taylor Ward was added, while Detroit’s win was fuelled by Troy Melton’s seven scoreless innings and an offence that punished every mistake.[13] Detroit’s broader injury list has included Trey Sweeney, Kenley Jansen, Burch Smith, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, so any late activation or absence there would move the market materially if it affects the projected starter or late-game bullpen depth.[7] Seattle’s recent results also show volatility: the Mariners entered the June series on an eight-game winning streak before dropping consecutive games to Detroit, which is the kind of swing traders usually price through less aggressively after a single shutout.[4][7]
Watch the official line-ups, starting pitcher announcement and any last-minute rest decisions before first pitch, because those are the dependencies most likely to change a 41% spot materially. If Seattle gives a regular day off to a key bat, or if Detroit is forced into a bullpen-heavy plan because of a rotation issue, the current price will likely re-rate quickly; if both clubs roll out their strongest available orders, the market should lean more on the Mariners’ steadier season indicators than on one recent Detroit blowout.[1][13][15]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $109K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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