Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| NRFI | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Extra Innings | 0% |
| Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Spread -8.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Detroit Tigers’ visit to San Francisco is priced as a near coin flip, but the market’s current 100% YES implies either a stale line or an assumption that the favourite side is overwhelmingly established. That reading is hard to square with late pre-game pricing, where the Tigers were still trading around -107 to -116 on the moneyline, with the Giants roughly -103 to +101, and most models keeping the game within a run either way.[1][6][8][12] The most recent completed meeting in this set was a 5-2 Giants win on 7 August 2026, which is a reminder that the clubs have been tight enough for short-form results to matter, even when season records are mediocre.[2]
For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starter pairing, any late lineup rests, and bullpen availability after the 7 August game. Several previews listed Jackson Jobe against Landen Roupp as the probable pitching matchup, and the market was built around a relatively low total in the 7.5 to 8.5 range, which usually means one scratched starter or a batting-order change can move the price quickly.[5][8][10] Detroit entered the set around 56-60, while San Francisco was 49-67, so form favours the Tigers on paper, but the Giants’ home field and the narrow moneyline suggest the edge was never large.[2][3][12]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $288K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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