🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogView on Polymarket →

توقع: MLB: Home Runs Leader

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: MLB: Home Runs Leader" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Pete Crow-Armstrong 97% Kyle Schwarber 2% Aaron Judge 0% Shohei Ohtani 0% Volume: $3.3M Liquidity: $71K Closes: 16 Oct 2026
Open live market →
توقع: MLB: Home Runs Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 97% 3% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 97% 3% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Pete Crow-Armstrong97%
Kyle Schwarber2%
Aaron Judge0%
Shohei Ohtani0%
Cal Raleigh0%
Eugenio Suarez0%
Juan Soto0%
Junior Caminero0%
Pete Alonso0%
Nick Kurtz0%
Rafael Devers0%
George Springer0%
Giancarlo Stanton0%
Mike Trout0%
Manny Machado0%
Matt Olson0%
James Wood0%
Yordan Alvarez0%
Munetaka Murakami0%
Ben Rice0%
Jordan Walker0%
Brandon Lowe0%
Sal Stewart0%
CJ Abrams0%
Elly De La Cruz0%
Shea Langeliers0%
Hunter Goodman0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Player AO0%
Player AP0%
Player AQ0%
Player AR0%
Player AS0%
Player AT0%
Player AU0%
Player AV0%
Player AW0%
Player AX0%
Player AY0%
Player AZ0%
Player BA0%
Player BB0%
Player BC0%
Player BD0%
Player BE0%
Player BF0%
Player BG0%
Player BH0%
Player BI0%
Player BJ0%
Player BK0%
Player BL0%
Player BM0%
Player BN0%
Player BO0%
Player BP0%
Player BQ0%
Player BR0%
Player BS0%
Player BT0%
Player BU0%
Player BV0%
Player BW0%
Player BX0%
Other0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: mlb: home runs leader stands at 97% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resol…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: MLB: Home Runs Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

Trade توقع: MLB: Home Runs Leader on احتمالات كأس العالم

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to احتمالات كأس العالم.

See all markets →