Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 77% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| NRFI | 51% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| O/U 8.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | 40% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 38% |
| O/U 9.5 | 38% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 28% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 27% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| Extra Innings | 10% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 77% YES probability for توقع: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres. In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres, scheduled for July 30 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $421K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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