Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
49% | 51% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
49% | 51% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 49% |
| Draw | 26% |
| New York City FC | 26% |
Market context
FC Cincinnati host New York City FC with the market sitting almost level, and that reflects a fixture that has already produced goals rather than control. The sides drew 4-4 in New York in April, and over their 20 most recent meetings NYCFC have had the edge overall, winning 10 to Cincinnati’s six, with four draws. That history points to a matchup where one moment can swing the price sharply, especially when both teams have shown they can trade chances rather than shut games down.
The main near-term driver is availability. Match previews published on 19 August listed FC Cincinnati with no unavailable players, while NYCFC were carrying a much heavier injury list, including Maxi Moralez, Alonso Martínez, Aiden O’Neill, Kai Trewin, Arnau Farnós, Mac Learned and Drew Baiera. That imbalance matters because Moralez and Martínez are central to NYCFC’s attacking structure, and the absences reduce both creation and finishing options. For traders, the key watchpoints are the final line-ups, any late fitness calls on those injured players, and whether Cincinnati rotate at all given the short turnaround around a midweek MLS fixture.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.4M.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: FC Cincinnati vs. New York City FC on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →