Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlanta United FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Atlanta United FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Philadelphia Union (-1.5) | 0% |
| Atlanta United FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union (-2.5) | 0% |
| Atlanta United FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Atlanta United FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Philadelphia Union 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Atlanta United FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Atlanta United FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Philadelphia Union against Atlanta United FC has been one of the league’s more balanced fixtures over time, with the head-to-head split almost dead even and seven draws in 20 meetings, which makes a very low current crowd price on “more markets” hard to square with the matchup itself.[4][12] Recent meetings have not followed a simple home-away pattern: Atlanta won 3-1 in March 2026, Philadelphia won 1-0 at Atlanta in May 2025, and the Union also beat Atlanta 3-0 in April 2025, so prior scorelines have swung enough that traders should treat the historical baseline as mixed rather than one-sided.[7][16][2]
The main line-moving factor is current form rather than the long-run record. ESPN’s season page shows the sides entering this fixture level on points in a crowded lower-half race, with Philadelphia on 13 and Atlanta on 12, and both clubs have had defensive problems across recent MLS matches.[8][9] That matters for “more markets” because a game involving two teams that have been inconsistent in chance creation and vulnerable at the back is more likely to generate secondary outcomes such as cards, corners, substitutions, and goal-scorer angles than a clean, low-event script. Watch the final team sheets and any late injury or suspension updates, because a single attacking absence or a rotated back line can shift the range of likely in-play markets sharply before kick-off.[1][3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United FC - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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