Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| New England Revolution O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Toronto FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Toronto FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Toronto FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| New England Revolution (-1.5) | 0% |
| Toronto FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| New England Revolution (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| New England Revolution 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Toronto FC and New England Revolution meet in an MLS regular-season fixture on 15 August 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. The match falls late in the regular season, with playoff positioning likely settled or near-certain for both clubs by that date. Current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on what additional markets will be offered, or pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about whether supplementary betting options will materialise before the settlement window closes.
Historical precedent shows that MLS fixture markets frequently expand as match day approaches. Sportsbooks typically add player-specific props, corner totals, and card markets 48–72 hours before kick-off, particularly for fixtures between established franchises with consistent trading volume. Toronto FC and New England are among the league's oldest sides; their head-to-head record spans decades and typically generates secondary market demand. The 0% reading is unusual for a confirmed fixture and suggests the market may be awaiting formal announcement of which additional markets will be available.
Traders should monitor official MLS scheduling confirmations and sportsbook announcements through early August. Any postponement, venue change, or roster disruption affecting either club could delay or cancel supplementary market offerings. Recent injury reports and squad news from both franchises will influence which props attract liquidity; a key player absence at either club might suppress overall trading interest. The settlement window's 15 August deadline is tight, leaving minimal time for late-stage market additions after the match concludes.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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