Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| Steelers O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 99% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 99% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 99% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 99% |
| Bills 1H O/U 8.5 | 99% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 99% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 99% |
| O/U 17.5 | 97% |
| O/U 23.5 | 97% |
| 1H O/U 17.5 | 97% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| O/U 25.5 | 90% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 83% |
| Steelers vs. Bills | 82% |
| O/U 33.5 | 82% |
| 1Q O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| O/U 21.5 | 77% |
| O/U 27.5 | 77% |
| O/U 31.5 | 76% |
| 1H Moneyline | 76% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 76% |
| O/U 36.5 | 73% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| O/U 39.5 | 59% |
| O/U 41.5 | 53% |
| O/U 45.5 | 52% |
| Bills O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Bills O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Bills O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 1-6 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Bills by 21+ | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Bills Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Steelers vs. Bills: Total Defensive/Special Teams TDs O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Steelers vs. Bills: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Bills 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 49% |
| O/U 47.5 | 34% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| Spread -0.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| O/U 53.5 | 17% |
| Spread -1.5 | 16% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Spread -4.5 | 12% |
Market context
Steelers vs. Bills. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 79% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-08-27T23:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $241K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Steelers vs. Bills. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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