Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Other Score | 100% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 0 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 0 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 1 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 2 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 3 - 3 FC St. Gallen | 0% |
Market context
Benfica’s meeting with St. Gallen is shaping up as a qualifier where the exact score market is being priced off a clear class gap, but not a trivial one. The sides have already met in this tie, with St. Gallen beating Benfica 2-1 away on 23 July, which is a strong reminder that a Benfica win does not automatically mean a routine scoreline.[9][1] UEFA’s head-to-head page still shows only that one competitive meeting between the clubs, with St. Gallen holding the only win in the series.[1]
Recent form suggests both teams can score, which keeps 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1-type outcomes in play rather than a single dominant favourite score. Benfica’s listed recent results include a 3-1 away win at Estoril and a run of high-scoring league games, while St. Gallen have also been involved in open matches, including a 3-1 win at Basel and a 1-1 draw with Thun.[4] BBC’s recent match notes also pointed to Benfica beating Villarreal 2-0 in a friendly and St. Gallen coming through a mixed pre-season, with defeats to Norwich and Lyon but wins over Winterthur and Altach.[7]
For traders, the main catalysts are line-up disclosure, any late injury or suspension information, and whether Benfica rotate after the first leg result and the qualifying schedule. Sky Sports listed this as a Europa League qualifying second-round tie at Estádio da Luz, with Benfica already shown at 0 and St. Gallen at 0 before kick-off, underscoring that the market was thin on live scoring signals rather than settled team news.[4] If Benfica name a stronger attacking XI, the distribution shifts towards higher home-score outcomes; if they are conservative or missing first-choice forwards, the 0% implied yes on any specific exact score remains consistent with a wide, low-confidence scoring range.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen - Exact Score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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