Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| Tromsø IL (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 0% |
| Tromsø IL (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Hradec Králové host Tromsø IL with a 1-0 aggregate lead after Mick van Buren’s 85th-minute winner in Norway, where Adam Zadražil also saved a penalty to preserve the clean sheet.[2][7] That first leg matters because it frames the current market: a price implying a 100% yes on “more markets” is only plausible if traders expect fresh, line-up-sensitive information before kick-off rather than a simple replay of the first-leg pattern. The tie has already shown a tight, low-margin dynamic, with Hradec winning despite Tromsø having much of the territorial edge in the opening match.[4][10]
For comparable cases, first-leg away wins by a single goal in UEFA qualifying often keep secondary markets live until team news is confirmed, because one early change can alter both game state and qualification incentives. UEFA’s match listing confirms the fixture is the second leg of this Europa League qualifier, while preview material notes Hradec are defending a 1-0 aggregate lead and Tromsø must chase the tie from the start.[1][13] The main trader watchpoints are the official line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and whether either side rotates after the short qualifying turnaround; the market can move sharply if Hradec preserve the same back line and goalkeeper, or if Tromsø name a more attack-heavy XI than in the first leg.[1][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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