Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
71% | 29% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
71% | 29% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 71% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 60% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 52% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 45% |
| Decision or Draw | 44% |
| Fight won by decision? | 43% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 42% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 38% |
| Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King | 36% |
| King to win by KO/TKO? | 36% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 36% |
| Fight won by submission? | 35% |
| King in Round 1 | 31% |
| Rosas to win by KO/TKO? | 28% |
| Rosas in Round 1 | 28% |
| King in Round 2 | 28% |
| King in Round 3 | 28% |
| Rosas in Round 2 | 27% |
| Rosas in Round 3 | 26% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 71% YES probability for توقع: Noche UFC: Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King (Featherweight, Prelims). This market will resolve to "Jessie Rosas" if Jessie Rosas is officially declared the winner of the fight against Sean King at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026. It will …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $89K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Noche UFC: Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King (Featherweight, Prelims). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: Noche UFC: Jessie Rosas vs. Sean King (Feather… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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