Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 67% |
| Spread -11.5 | 59% |
| Janelle Salaün: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| Spread -12.5 | 56% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| O/U 164.5 | 51% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Janelle Salaün: Points O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Janelle Salaün: Points O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Nyara Sabally: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Janelle Salaün: Assists O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| O/U 165.5 | 49% |
| O/U 166.5 | 48% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 48% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| O/U 167.5 | 45% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 6.5 | 45% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| Julie Allemand: Assists O/U 5.5 | 44% |
| Nyara Sabally: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 43% |
| Julie Allemand: Assists O/U 6.5 | 41% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Isabelle Harrison: Points O/U 11.5 | 26% |
| Toronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyries | 12% |
| Marina Mabrey: Points O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Marina Mabrey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Marina Mabrey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Toronto Tempo’s trip to face the Golden State Valkyries is priced like a major mismatch, with the crowd implying only a 12% chance of a Tempo win. That sits well below the market tone from books and preview sites, which have generally made Golden State a heavy favourite on the moneyline, with spreads ranging from about -11.5 to -13.5 and a total around 165.5 points.[1][2][4][6]
That probability is broadly in line with the kind of gap seen when Golden State has already handled Toronto comfortably this season: the Valkyries beat the Tempo 83-75 on 8 July, and earlier market snapshots had Golden State favoured by roughly 7.5 to 8.5 points before that meeting.[5][7][9] A second layer is Toronto’s recent form, with one preview explicitly framing the Tempo as coming off a blowout loss to Minnesota, while current odds feeds still show Golden State as the stronger side by a wide margin.[2][3]
For traders, the key catalysts are line-up availability and any late changes to the pre-game number rather than broad team strength. The best current reference point is that market prices are already anchored near a 90% Golden State win rate in some previews, so any injury, rest or suspension news affecting the Valkyries’ core would be the main route to meaningful movement; absent that, the market is likely to stay close to the existing heavy-favourite profile.[1][4][6]
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $100K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Toronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyries. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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