Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 69% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 22.5 | 68% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 Winner | 66% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang | 65% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 Winner | 61% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 60% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Match O/U 21.5 | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 21% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 69% probability to توقع: national bank open: yulia putintseva vs shuai zhang. This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Putintseva and Shuai Zhang in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yulia Pu…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: National Bank Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Shuai Zhang. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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