Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| O/U 7.5 | 80% |
| O/U 8.5 | 70% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 70% |
| Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Extra Innings | 50% |
| O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 43% |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers | 14% |
| Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| Spread -2.5 | 5% |
| NRFI | 0% |
Market context
The Chicago White Sox face the Detroit Tigers on 16 August at 1:40 PM ET in a matchup between two struggling American League Central franchises. The 49% implied probability reflects genuine competitive uncertainty, though the White Sox enter with marginally superior recent form. Detroit has won four of its last six games, whilst Chicago has taken three of its past five, suggesting both teams remain capable of producing results despite their broader season trajectories.
Historical context matters here: the White Sox hold a slight edge in head-to-head records against Detroit over recent seasons, though neither club has established clear dominance. The Tigers' pitching staff has shown inconsistency, whilst the White Sox's offensive output remains volatile. Injuries to key position players on either roster could shift the balance considerably; Detroit's outfield depth has been tested throughout the season, and any late-inning absences would favour Chicago's bullpen matchups.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through 16 August morning, particularly regarding starting pitcher confirmations and any last-minute injury updates. Weather conditions at Comerica Park merit attention—afternoon games in Detroit during mid-August typically favour teams with stronger fastball command due to humidity effects on ball carry. Recent line movement from opening odds will indicate whether sharp money has identified specific lineup advantages or pitching mismatches that the current 49-51 split has not yet priced in. The settlement window extends to 23 August, allowing for potential postponement scenarios if weather disrupts the original fixture.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $247K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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