Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wisla Krakow (-1.5) | 0% |
| Wisla Plock (-1.5) | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow (-2.5) | 0% |
| Wisla Plock (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Krakow 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wisla Plock 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Wisła Kraków host Wisła Płock in an Ekstraklasa meeting that sits within a live rivalry shaped by small margins and recent, high-scoring finishes. The best recent comparable is their 2-1 league match on 7 August 2026, which finished with Wisła Kraków ahead 2-1 at half-time and stayed there, underlining how quickly this pairing can turn on first-half momentum rather than late control.[10][11] Longer-run head-to-head data also points to balance rather than dominance: FotMob lists the overall record at 8 wins for Kraków, 7 for Płock and 5 draws, while BBC’s head-to-head page shows both clubs have traded wins across the series.[5][1]
For traders watching the “more markets” angles, the key catalysts are team news and whether the line-ups preserve the attacking profile seen in recent fixtures. FotMob lists Raoul Giger as unavailable for Wisła Kraków and says Wisła Płock have no unavailable players, which can matter in a market that often reacts to defensive absences and set-piece reliability.[5] Recent match context also favours volatility: Wisła Kraków came through a 4-3 game at Piast Gliwice and a 2-1 home win over GKS Katowice in their opening league matches, while Wisła Płock have also shown they can travel well, with a 2-1 away win at Cracovia in the current run.[3][7] Kick-off is 19:30 local time at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, so confirmed starting XIs and any late changes to the goalkeepers, centre-backs or main forwards are the main dependencies that can move these derivative markets most quickly.[1][17]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Wisla Krakow vs. Wisla Plock - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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