Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 92% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 78% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 64% |
| Ends before Round 5? | 56% |
| Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley | 55% |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 48% |
| Ends before Round 4? | 42% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 40% |
| Fight won by decision? | 36% |
| Decision or Draw | 36% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 35% |
| Buckley to win by KO/TKO? | 30% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 28% |
| Malott to win by KO/TKO? | 20% |
| Fight won by submission? | 16% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 15% |
| Malott in Round 1 | 9% |
| Buckley in Round 3 | 9% |
| Buckley in Round 4 | 9% |
| Malott in Round 2 | 8% |
| Buckley in Round 1 | 8% |
| Buckley in Round 2 | 8% |
| Buckley in Round 5 | 8% |
| Malott in Round 4 | 7% |
| Malott in Round 3 | 6% |
| Malott in Round 5 | 5% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 92% YES probability for توقع: UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card). This market will resolve to "Mike Malott" if Mike Malott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Joaquin Buckley at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026. …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $128K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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