Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 100% |
| Rosas Jr. to win by KO/TKO? | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 100% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 5 | 100% |
| Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. | 0% |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 0% |
| Barcelos to win by KO/TKO? | 0% |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 0% |
| Fight won by decision? | 0% |
| Ends before Round 2? | 0% |
| Ends before Round 3? | 0% |
| Ends before Round 4? | 0% |
| Ends before Round 5? | 0% |
| Barcelos in Round 1 | 0% |
| Barcelos in Round 2 | 0% |
| Barcelos in Round 3 | 0% |
| Barcelos in Round 4 | 0% |
| Barcelos in Round 5 | 0% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 1 | 0% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 2 | 0% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 3 | 0% |
| Rosas Jr. in Round 4 | 0% |
| Decision or Draw | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to توقع: ufc fight night: raoni barcelos vs. raul rosas jr. (bantamweight, main card). This market will resolve to "Raoni Barcelos" if Raoni Barcelos is officially declared the winner of the fight against Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $960K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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