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توقع: Iceland vs. Estonia - More Markets

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Iceland vs. Estonia - More Markets" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

O/U 0.5 95% Iceland O/U 0.5 92% O/U 1.5 80% 1st Half O/U 0.5 73% Volume: $235K Liquidity: $159K Closes: 26 Sept 2026
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توقع: Iceland vs. Estonia - More Markets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
95% 5% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
95% 5% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
— — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
— — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
— — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
O/U 0.595%
Iceland O/U 0.592%
O/U 1.580%
1st Half O/U 0.573%
Iceland 1st Half O/U 0.571%
Iceland O/U 1.570%
2nd Half O/U 0.569%
2nd Half O/U 1.569%
O/U 2.557%
Both Teams to Score in First Half56%
Iceland (-1.5)53%
Iceland 1st Half O/U 1.553%
Both Teams to Score in Second Half50%
Iceland 2nd Half O/U 0.550%
Iceland 2nd Half O/U 1.550%
Estonia 2nd Half O/U 0.550%
Estonia 2nd Half O/U 1.550%
Iceland 2nd Half O/U 2.550%
Iceland 2nd Half O/U 3.550%
Estonia 2nd Half O/U 2.550%
Estonia 2nd Half O/U 3.550%
Estonia (-4.5)49%
Iceland (-5.5)49%
Estonia (-5.5)49%
Estonia (-3.5)48%
Estonia O/U 0.546%
Both Teams to Score42%
Iceland O/U 2.542%
Estonia 1st Half O/U 0.539%
Iceland 1st Half O/U 2.539%
Iceland 1st Half O/U 3.539%
1st Half O/U 1.538%
O/U 3.534%
2nd Half O/U 2.532%
Iceland (-2.5)30%
Estonia 1st Half O/U 1.528%
1st Half O/U 3.527%
1st Half O/U 4.527%
Estonia 1st Half O/U 2.525%
Estonia 1st Half O/U 3.525%
2nd Half O/U 3.524%
2nd Half O/U 4.522%
O/U 7.520%
Iceland O/U 3.520%
Estonia O/U 5.519%
Estonia O/U 4.518%
Estonia (-2.5)17%
O/U 4.517%
O/U 6.517%
O/U 8.516%
1st Half O/U 2.514%
Iceland (-3.5)14%
Estonia O/U 3.514%
Estonia O/U 1.512%
Iceland O/U 4.58%
O/U 5.57%
Iceland (-4.5)6%
Iceland O/U 5.53%
Estonia (-1.5)2%
Estonia O/U 2.52%

Market context

توقع: Iceland vs. Estonia - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 95%. More markets for the UEFA Nations League game, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00 PM ET.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Iceland vs. Estonia - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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