Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 69% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 69% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 58% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 57% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 49% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) | 49% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 47% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 45% |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) | 44% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs GIANTX (+3.5) | 43% |
| Map 2 Winner | 37% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 36% |
| Map 1 Winner | 35% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 35% |
| Match Winner | 31% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 69% YES probability for توقع: Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket round 1 match between GIANTX and Fnatic in the VCT EMEA Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 13 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "GIANTX"…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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