Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 161.5 | 53% |
| O/U 162.5 | 51% |
| Spread -6.5 | 49% |
| O/U 163.5 | 48% |
| Odyssey Sims: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Odyssey Sims: Points O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 37% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Assists O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Assists O/U 3.5 | 35% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Paige Bueckers: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries | 30% |
| Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Jessica Shepard: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 30% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 12.5 | 28% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 18.5 | 27% |
| Arike Ogunbowale: Points O/U 15.5 | 26% |
| Paige Bueckers: Assists O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 13.5 | 26% |
| Cecilia Zandalasini: Points O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 6.5 | 26% |
| Odyssey Sims: Points O/U 9.5 | 26% |
| Paige Bueckers: Points O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Jessica Shepard: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 25% |
| Odyssey Sims: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Cecilia Zandalasini: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Jessica Shepard: Assists O/U 4.5 | 23% |
| Jessica Shepard: Points O/U 12.5 | 21% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 55% YES probability for توقع: Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 17 at 10:00PM ET: If the Dallas Wings win, the market will resolve to "Dallas Wings". If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Gol…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $90K.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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