Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 1 Winner | 90% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys | 77% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 58% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 2 Winner | 57% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 7% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: national bank open: marta kostyuk vs madison keys stands at 90% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Marta Kostyuk and Madison Keys in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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