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توقع: STRC hits $100 by…

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: STRC hits $100 by…" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

December 31 56% September 30 35% June 30 0% Volume: $404K Liquidity: $37K Closes: 31 Dec 2026
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توقع: STRC hits $100 by…

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
December 3156%
September 3035%
June 300%

Market context

STRC is trading well below the $100 trigger, with the shares around the high-80s and a 52-week range that tops out at $100.42, so the market still needs a sizeable intraday move to print a one-minute candle high at or above the level that settles this event.[19][20] That makes the current 0% implied probability understandable: under this contract, only a TradingView 1-minute candle on the NASDAQ:STRC chart with a *final* high of at least $100 counts, so a brief quote elsewhere or an illiquid spike that does not show up on that feed will not resolve the market.[19][20]

The main historical guide is that STRC has already traded near par before, but has also spent much of the recent period below it. TradingView-linked price history and market data show a 52-week range of roughly $71.25 to $100.42, while commentary from Strategy has reiterated a corporate objective for STRC to trade over time at $99–$100, and Yahoo Finance noted the stock was still about $13 below that target when it reported on the latest rebound.[1][2][7][19][20] In other words, the line is not impossible, but it has required a strong rerating to get there, and the gap between the current price and the trigger is still material.[2][19]

For traders, the key catalysts are any fresh Strategy commentary on the preferred stock, changes to the dividend-setting framework, and moves in Bitcoin, which multiple reports have linked to STRC’s direction because the company’s balance-sheet profile and capital allocation are central to the trade.[2][4][11][12] Recent coverage also pointed to a rebound in STRC alongside a larger cash cushion and steadier Bitcoin prices, while other analysis suggested the market was already pricing in a dividend increase rather than a suspension, which can affect demand for the issue if sentiment improves.[3][4][11][12] With settlement running to 2026-12-31, the path to $100 is more likely to come from a sustained re-pricing than from a single overnight move.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: STRC hits $100 by…. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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