Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| December 31 | 56% |
| September 30 | 35% |
| June 30 | 0% |
Market context
STRC is trading well below the $100 trigger, with the shares around the high-80s and a 52-week range that tops out at $100.42, so the market still needs a sizeable intraday move to print a one-minute candle high at or above the level that settles this event.[19][20] That makes the current 0% implied probability understandable: under this contract, only a TradingView 1-minute candle on the NASDAQ:STRC chart with a *final* high of at least $100 counts, so a brief quote elsewhere or an illiquid spike that does not show up on that feed will not resolve the market.[19][20]
The main historical guide is that STRC has already traded near par before, but has also spent much of the recent period below it. TradingView-linked price history and market data show a 52-week range of roughly $71.25 to $100.42, while commentary from Strategy has reiterated a corporate objective for STRC to trade over time at $99–$100, and Yahoo Finance noted the stock was still about $13 below that target when it reported on the latest rebound.[1][2][7][19][20] In other words, the line is not impossible, but it has required a strong rerating to get there, and the gap between the current price and the trigger is still material.[2][19]
For traders, the key catalysts are any fresh Strategy commentary on the preferred stock, changes to the dividend-setting framework, and moves in Bitcoin, which multiple reports have linked to STRC’s direction because the company’s balance-sheet profile and capital allocation are central to the trade.[2][4][11][12] Recent coverage also pointed to a rebound in STRC alongside a larger cash cushion and steadier Bitcoin prices, while other analysis suggested the market was already pricing in a dividend increase rather than a suspension, which can affect demand for the issue if sentiment improves.[3][4][11][12] With settlement running to 2026-12-31, the path to $100 is more likely to come from a sustained re-pricing than from a single overnight move.[2][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: STRC hits $100 by…. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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