Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Game Spread +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
The US Open qualifying meeting between Yunchaokete Bu and Borna Gojo sits in the right bracket for a decisive early-round market: Bu is the higher-ranked player in the latest live listings, but the gap is not large, and their most recent hard-court results suggest a fairly even matchup rather than a one-sided spot[1][13]. Bu arrived off a three-set win over Rio Noguchi, while Gojo had already advanced past Zdenek Kolar, so both players were carrying match sharpness into the round[2][14].
For historical framing, the head-to-head is listed 1-0 to Bu, with the previous meeting also going Bu’s way, which supports the market leaning towards him but does not make the 100% crowd view self-evident[2][8]. That matters because qualifying matches at Flushing Meadows can turn on recent minutes on court, not just ranking, and the current price implies the market is treating Bu’s combination of ranking and prior edge as close to decisive[1][12].
The main catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the match is actually completed, plus any late schedule reshuffles or walkover-related changes in the qualifying draw. The US Open qualifying draw shows both players in the men’s qualifying section, and live score pages indicate the match was scheduled for Court 13 on 26 August, so settlement should ultimately depend on a completed result rather than a cancellation or unfinished contest[1][9][12].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Borna Gojo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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