Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Felix Gill and Jack Pinnington Jones are scheduled to meet in Brownsburg on 13 August 2026 at 1:00PM ET in what appears to be a lower-tier professional or qualifying-round fixture. The 0% implied probability suggests either one player is heavily favoured or market participants lack confidence in the match occurring as scheduled. The settlement window extends to 20 August, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before the market resolves to a 50-50 split.
Direct head-to-head records between players at this level are often sparse or non-existent, particularly if either competitor operates primarily on satellite circuits or has limited ATP/WTA exposure. Recent form becomes the primary lens: Gill's win-loss record over the past three months, surface preference (clay in Brownsburg), and ranking trajectory matter far more than historical matchups. Similarly, Pinnington Jones's recent results, particularly on clay, and any momentum from recent tournaments would typically anchor the baseline expectation. The 0% reading suggests the market may be reflecting incomplete information about one player's current status or availability rather than a genuine assessment of competitive balance.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and entry lists as the event approaches, particularly any late withdrawals or injury announcements. Brownsburg's specific tournament classification—whether ATP Challenger, ITF, or regional event—affects player participation patterns and reliability of scheduling. Weather forecasts for mid-August in the venue region could influence postponement risk, whilst any ranking points on offer might shift player commitment levels closer to the event date.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Brownsburg: Felix Gill vs Jack Pinnington Jones. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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