Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Jiri Lehecka’s second-round meeting with Vit Kopriva in Montreal has already been played, and Lehecka won in straight sets. The official National Bank Open results page shows Lehecka advancing 6-4, 6-2, with Lehecka taking 72% of his service points and converting three of seven break points, while Kopriva managed no break-point conversions.[1] That result alone explains why a market priced at 100% YES on Lehecka would now have been effectively locked in once the match completed.
The historical case for this pairing was always heavily tilted towards Lehecka. He came into the match as the higher-ranked player, with ATP-era previews describing him as the clear favourite on hard courts, and the only previous head-to-head was a Lehecka win in Liberec in 2022.[3][9][16] Lehecka has also shown stronger Masters 1000 output this season, including a runner-up finish in Miami and a solid record at that level, while Kopriva had been described as struggling to transfer clay-court form to hard courts and arriving in Montreal on a losing streak before his first-round win.[6]
For traders, the only meaningful catalysts were whether the match would actually start on schedule and whether either player had late injury or withdrawal news. The published match listing put the contest in the second round on Court 5 on 4 August 2026, and the scoreline in live and official feeds indicates it was completed rather than suspended or postponed.[1][7][8] Because the market’s settlement window runs well beyond the original date, the main resolution risk would have been a no-contest, but that did not materialise once the completed result was posted.[1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Vit Kopriva. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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