Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
67% | 33% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
67% | 33% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 67% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 64% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Match O/U 36.5 | 57% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Match O/U 38.5 | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Game Spread +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 3 Winner | 48% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Match O/U 40.5 | 46% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 19% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 67% YES probability for توقع: US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien. This market refers to the tennis match between Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 5, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' i…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Learner Tien. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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