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توقع: US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.5 68% US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 3.5 65% US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.5 60% US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Game Spread +/-0.5 54% Volume: $86K Liquidity: $330K Closes: 9 Sept 2026
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توقع: US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
68% 32% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
68% 32% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 8.568%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 3.565%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 9.560%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Game Spread +/-0.554%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 38.551%
Completed Match50%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 Winner50%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 8.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 9.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 4 O/U 10.550%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 40.549%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 Winner45%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 2 Winner45%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-1.544%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 3 Winner44%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo41%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set 1 O/U 10.536%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Match O/U 36.534%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Total Sets: O/U 4.531%
US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo Set Handicap +/-2.523%

Market context

توقع: US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo — current market-implied probability: 68%. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Alejandro Tabilo in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexei Po…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Related Topics

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