Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sister | 81% |
| Air Force / Space Force | 78% |
| Ukraine | 76% |
| Save America Act | 76% |
| Golf / Golfer | 76% |
| Military | 73% |
| Worker | 71% |
| Israel | 67% |
| Forever | 67% |
| Democrat | 67% |
| Security | 66% |
| Patriot | 64% |
| Tough Cookie | 43% |
| Supreme Court | 43% |
| Hell 2+ times | 37% |
| Afghanistan | 36% |
| Nobody Like Him | 30% |
| Stop Calling Me | 27% |
| See You Soon | 26% |
| Top Five / Top Ten | 24% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 3% |
| Gay / Homosexual | 1% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 81% chance of توقع: what will trump say during tribute to lindsey graham?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Trump is scheduled to deliver a tribute to Lindsey Graham in the Washington National Cathedral on July 28, 2026 at 2 PM ET (https://wng.org/sift/graham-funeral-1784738206). This …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: What will Trump say during tribute to Lindsey Graham?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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